Countrywide
The Calabasas California home based mortgage lender is bailing out a lot of their clients out of the subprime loans that are reseting this year. They are doing loan modifications, refinancing their loans to a fixed rate, in order to prevent future foreclosures.
If you have a mortgage loan with them, and you are late on your payments or unable to make them, do not put aside the letters they sent you, and don't procastinate because help is availabe, the are willing to help you in whatever way possible.
The same happens almost with every mortgage lender, they prefer to help you than ended up with a foreclosures, which cost them more money and having a repossessed property that will take months to sell.
There are also a couple on non profit foundation in Los Angeles area that are able to assist you as well, they are Acorn Housing and Naca, both have a website.
If you need help you can also approach me for guidance, I am here to help you in whatever manner I can. You can e-mail me or call me. I also post some information on my website http://www.sfvalleyhotproperties.com in regards to foreclosures.
Tuesday, October 30, 2007
Monday, October 15, 2007
Wednesday, October 10, 2007
August Home Sales in The San Fernando Valley
According to Southland Regional Association of Realtors, home sales fell an annual 33.1% to 552 transactions. Median Home price increased 5.7% to $645,000.
On the condominium side the sales plunged 40.7% to only 188 transactions and the median prices slipped 2.8% to $389,000.
We now have an inventory of 10.4 month supply, first time it broke to double digit since 1995.
Santa Clarita area condo sales plunged 40.6 % from a year ago, the median priced dipped 2.2 to $362,000 and the home listings supply climbed to 10.2 month.
According to Southland Regional Association of Realtors, home sales fell an annual 33.1% to 552 transactions. Median Home price increased 5.7% to $645,000.
On the condominium side the sales plunged 40.7% to only 188 transactions and the median prices slipped 2.8% to $389,000.
We now have an inventory of 10.4 month supply, first time it broke to double digit since 1995.
Santa Clarita area condo sales plunged 40.6 % from a year ago, the median priced dipped 2.2 to $362,000 and the home listings supply climbed to 10.2 month.
Saturday, October 06, 2007
Burbank Real Estate
Homes and Condos Sold Burbank for August 2007
ZIP CODE 91501
Homes Sold: 7 Median Price:$905,000 Price Change from Aug 2006: 15.4%
Condos Sold: 9 Median Price $415,000 Price Change from Aug 2006: -10.9%
ZIP CODE 91502
Homes Sold: 1 Median Price:$600,000 Price Change from Aug 2006: 29%
ZIP CODE 91504
Homes Sold: 13 Median Price:$829,000 Price Change from Aug 2006: 18.4%
Condos Sold: 9 Median Price $449,000 Price Change from Aug 2006: -2.9%
ZIP CODE 91505
Homes Sold: 28 Median Price:$613,000 Price Change from Aug 2006: -8.6%
Condos Sold: 5 Median Price $539,000 Price Change from Aug 2006: 12.2%
ZIP CODE 91506
Homes Sold: 10 Median Price:$649,000 Price Change from Aug 2006: 6.4%
Homes and Condos Sold Burbank for August 2007
ZIP CODE 91501
Homes Sold: 7 Median Price:$905,000 Price Change from Aug 2006: 15.4%
Condos Sold: 9 Median Price $415,000 Price Change from Aug 2006: -10.9%
ZIP CODE 91502
Homes Sold: 1 Median Price:$600,000 Price Change from Aug 2006: 29%
ZIP CODE 91504
Homes Sold: 13 Median Price:$829,000 Price Change from Aug 2006: 18.4%
Condos Sold: 9 Median Price $449,000 Price Change from Aug 2006: -2.9%
ZIP CODE 91505
Homes Sold: 28 Median Price:$613,000 Price Change from Aug 2006: -8.6%
Condos Sold: 5 Median Price $539,000 Price Change from Aug 2006: 12.2%
ZIP CODE 91506
Homes Sold: 10 Median Price:$649,000 Price Change from Aug 2006: 6.4%
Thursday, September 06, 2007
YTD Activity Report: 1/1/2007 through 8/31/2007
Property Type: Residential Granada Hills
Listings: 783
New Average Listings Price $685,119
Under Contract: 34
Average Listing Price: $645,275
Sold: 264
Average Sold Price: $639,082
% Sales Price / Listing Price: 98,22%
Sales Price / Old Listing Price: 95,97
Average Days on the Market: 64
Property Type: Residential Granada Hills
Listings: 783
New Average Listings Price $685,119
Under Contract: 34
Average Listing Price: $645,275
Sold: 264
Average Sold Price: $639,082
% Sales Price / Listing Price: 98,22%
Sales Price / Old Listing Price: 95,97
Average Days on the Market: 64
Tuesday, September 04, 2007
Homes Sold In Northridge For August 2007
Property Type: Residential
New Listings: 154
Average Listing PriceP: $756,113
Under Contract: 28
Average Listing Price: $604.670
Sold: 48
Average Sold Price: $658,579
%Sales Price/Listing Price: 97.43%
% Sales Price / Old Listing Price: 94.45%
Average Days on the Market: 71
Property Type: Residential
New Listings: 154
Average Listing PriceP: $756,113
Under Contract: 28
Average Listing Price: $604.670
Sold: 48
Average Sold Price: $658,579
%Sales Price/Listing Price: 97.43%
% Sales Price / Old Listing Price: 94.45%
Average Days on the Market: 71
Homes Sold In Granada Hills For August 2007
Property Type: Residential
New Listings: 81
Average Listing PriceP: $673,437
Under Contract: 18
Average Listing Price: $677,658
Sold: 22
Average Sold Price: $600,373
%Sales Price/Listing Price: 97.57%
%Sales Price/Listing Price: 97.57%
% Sales Price / Old Listing Price: 94.23%
Average Days on the Market: 50
Sunday, August 19, 2007
Tuesday, August 14, 2007
Tuesday, July 17, 2007
Foreclosures
7/17/07
According to real estate data provider PropertyShark.com, Foreclosures were on the rise in Los Angeles, in the second quarter,recorded 3,793 first-time trustee sales during the period, an increase of 54.6 percent from the first quarter of 2007, and a 202 percent increase compared to the first quarter of 2006.
The top five ZIP codes in Los Angeles County for trustee sales were in Lancaster and Palmdale.
7/17/07
According to real estate data provider PropertyShark.com, Foreclosures were on the rise in Los Angeles, in the second quarter,recorded 3,793 first-time trustee sales during the period, an increase of 54.6 percent from the first quarter of 2007, and a 202 percent increase compared to the first quarter of 2006.
The top five ZIP codes in Los Angeles County for trustee sales were in Lancaster and Palmdale.
Tuesday, July 10, 2007
Homes Sold on the 1st Quarter of 2007
Van Nuys Zip Code 91401
Average Price $ 510,800
Homes Sold 34
Average Days on the Market 54
% of Asking Price/Sold Listing Price 97.3 %
Van Nuys Zip Code 91402
Average Price $ 454,500
Homes Sold: 34
Average Days on Market: 89
% of Asking Price/Sold Listing Price: 98.9%
Van Nuys Zip Code 91405
Average Price $ 491,200
Homes Sold: 33
Average Days on Market: 69
% of Asking Price/Sold Listing Price: 96.2%
Van Nuys Zip Code 91406
Average Price $ 521,900
Homes Sold: 48
Average Days on The Market: 85
% of Asking Price / Sold Listing Price: 97%
Van Nuys Zip Code 91401
Average Price $ 510,800
Homes Sold 34
Average Days on the Market 54
% of Asking Price/Sold Listing Price 97.3 %
Van Nuys Zip Code 91402
Average Price $ 454,500
Homes Sold: 34
Average Days on Market: 89
% of Asking Price/Sold Listing Price: 98.9%
Van Nuys Zip Code 91405
Average Price $ 491,200
Homes Sold: 33
Average Days on Market: 69
% of Asking Price/Sold Listing Price: 96.2%
Van Nuys Zip Code 91406
Average Price $ 521,900
Homes Sold: 48
Average Days on The Market: 85
% of Asking Price / Sold Listing Price: 97%
Saturday, May 05, 2007
VIDEO
Townhome For Sale Located at 13102 1/2 Dronfield, Sylmar CA 91342n
VIDEO LISTINGAlberto Pacheco
Townhome For Sale Located at 13102 1/2 Dronfield, Sylmar CA 91342n
VIDEO LISTINGAlberto Pacheco
Realtor Calbre Lic 01200694
818 481 9211
Keller Williams Porter Ranch
Real Estate Consultant
http://www.granadahills.kwrealty.com Real Estate News, Mortgages, Trends
Wednesday, May 02, 2007
Homes Sold in Tarzana Woodland Hills and West Hills on First Quarter of 2007
1st Quarter of 2007
Tarzana
New Listings 250
Sold Listings 49
Avg Listing Price $993,161
Avg Sold Price $755,424
Days on The Market 73
Woodland Hills
New Listings 475
Sold Listings 119
Avg Listing Price $872,209
Avg Sold Price $796,217
Days on The Market 69
West Hills
New Listings 218
Sold Listings 63
Avg Listing Price $724,163
Avg Sold Price $640,853
Days on The Market 70
Tarzana
New Listings 250
Sold Listings 49
Avg Listing Price $993,161
Avg Sold Price $755,424
Days on The Market 73
Woodland Hills
New Listings 475
Sold Listings 119
Avg Listing Price $872,209
Avg Sold Price $796,217
Days on The Market 69
West Hills
New Listings 218
Sold Listings 63
Avg Listing Price $724,163
Avg Sold Price $640,853
Days on The Market 70
Alberto Pacheco
Realtor Calbre Lic 01200694
818 481 9211
Keller Williams Porter Ranch
Real Estate Consultant
http://www.granadahills.kwrealty.com Real Estate News, Mortgages, Trends
Friday, April 13, 2007
Homes Sold in Arleta Canoga Park and Encino First Quarter of 2007
San Ferndando Valley Statistics
For the 1st Quarter of 2007
ARLETA
Listings: 134
Average Listing Price $ 533,318
Homes Sold: 18
Average Sold Price $ 493,466
Average Days on The Market: 83
CANOGA PARK
Listings: 200
Average Listing Price $ 472,831
Homes Sold: 27
Average Sold Price $ 427,494
Average days on the Market: 97
ENCINO
Lisitings: 338
Average Listing Price $ 1,082,961
Homes Sold: 59
Average Sold Price $ 915,500
Average Days on the Market : 62
Alberto Pacheco
For the 1st Quarter of 2007
ARLETA
Listings: 134
Average Listing Price $ 533,318
Homes Sold: 18
Average Sold Price $ 493,466
Average Days on The Market: 83
CANOGA PARK
Listings: 200
Average Listing Price $ 472,831
Homes Sold: 27
Average Sold Price $ 427,494
Average days on the Market: 97
ENCINO
Lisitings: 338
Average Listing Price $ 1,082,961
Homes Sold: 59
Average Sold Price $ 915,500
Average Days on the Market : 62
Alberto Pacheco
Realtor Calbre Lic 01200694
818 481 9211
Keller Williams Porter Ranch
Real Estate Consultant
http://www.granadahills.kwrealty.com Real Estate News, Mortgages, Trends
Thursday, February 22, 2007
Real Estate
Rates on 30-year mortgages fell this week to the lowest level in six weeks.
The mortgage company Freddie Mac reported on Thursday that 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages averaged 6.22% this week compared with 6.30% last week.
The decline was only the second since early December. It pushed rates to the lowest level since the 30-year mortgage was at 6.21% the week of Jan. 11.
Analysts said the drop reflected in part weakness in the housing industry, shown by a 14.3% plunge in construction of new homes and apartments in January. That decline pushed the seasonally adjusted annual rate of home building down to 1.408 million units last month, the slowest pace in nearly a decade.
"Market participants were concerned over how much drag the slowing housing market may have on economic growth," said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac's chief economist.
Freddie Mac's survey showed that other types of mortgage rates also fell this week.
Rates on 15-year, fixed-rate mortgages, a popular choice for refinancing, were at 5.97%, down from 6.03% last week.
Five-year adjustable rate mortgages slipped to 5.96% from 6.01% last week.
One-year ARMs dropped to 5.49% from 5.52% last week.
The mortgage rates do not include add-on fees known as points. Thirty-year, 15-year and five-year mortgages all carried a nationwide average fee of 0.5 point. One-year mortgages carried an average fee of 0.7 point.
A year ago, rates on 30-year mortgages stood at 6.26% while 15-year mortgages were at 5.89%, five-year adjustable rate mortgages averaged 5.96% and one-year ARMs were at 5.32%.
Rates on 30-year mortgages fell this week to the lowest level in six weeks.
The mortgage company Freddie Mac reported on Thursday that 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages averaged 6.22% this week compared with 6.30% last week.
The decline was only the second since early December. It pushed rates to the lowest level since the 30-year mortgage was at 6.21% the week of Jan. 11.
Analysts said the drop reflected in part weakness in the housing industry, shown by a 14.3% plunge in construction of new homes and apartments in January. That decline pushed the seasonally adjusted annual rate of home building down to 1.408 million units last month, the slowest pace in nearly a decade.
"Market participants were concerned over how much drag the slowing housing market may have on economic growth," said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac's chief economist.
Freddie Mac's survey showed that other types of mortgage rates also fell this week.
Rates on 15-year, fixed-rate mortgages, a popular choice for refinancing, were at 5.97%, down from 6.03% last week.
Five-year adjustable rate mortgages slipped to 5.96% from 6.01% last week.
One-year ARMs dropped to 5.49% from 5.52% last week.
The mortgage rates do not include add-on fees known as points. Thirty-year, 15-year and five-year mortgages all carried a nationwide average fee of 0.5 point. One-year mortgages carried an average fee of 0.7 point.
A year ago, rates on 30-year mortgages stood at 6.26% while 15-year mortgages were at 5.89%, five-year adjustable rate mortgages averaged 5.96% and one-year ARMs were at 5.32%.
Tuesday, November 28, 2006
Real Estate: November 2006
Home prices post record drop in October
Median price sinks 3.5 percent from a year earlier, trade group see more price declines ahead.
November 28 2006
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The price of existing homes sold in October fell for the third straight month and posted the biggest drop on record, an industry group said Tuesday, adding it expects weakness in pricing to drag on into next year.
The National Association of Realtors said that the median price of a home sold in October was $221,000, the same as in September, but down 3.5 percent from October 2005.
The previous record drop was a 2.1 percent decline in November 1990, the real estate group said. While month-to-month declines in home prices are not uncommon, year-to-year drops had been rare before the recent housing slump.
Last August was the first month in 11 years to see such a decline. September was originally reported as a record 2.2 percent drop, but a revision in those numbers put that price decline at 1.8 percent.
The weakness in home prices isn't likely to go away soon, according to Realtors spokesman Walter Molony. "We do expect we'll see prices stay below year-ago levels through the end of this year, and pick up in the first quarter of 2007," he said.
Pat Vredevoogd Combs, a Grand Rapids, Mich., Realtor and president of the trade group, said in a statement the the market has become a good one for buyers.
"With the exception of parts of the West, sellers are cutting their price enough to encourage sales," she said. A sharp drop in sales and prices in once-hot markets such as Washington D.C. and parts of Florida, coupled with improved sales in some lower-price markets in Texas, have driven median prices down 7 percent in the South.
But all four regions of the country posted a year-over-year decline in median prices. "A fourth of the nation - areas that had the biggest boom - is in a correction that will take longer to balance," she added.
By Chris Isidore Cnnmone.com
Home prices post record drop in October
Median price sinks 3.5 percent from a year earlier, trade group see more price declines ahead.
November 28 2006
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The price of existing homes sold in October fell for the third straight month and posted the biggest drop on record, an industry group said Tuesday, adding it expects weakness in pricing to drag on into next year.
The National Association of Realtors said that the median price of a home sold in October was $221,000, the same as in September, but down 3.5 percent from October 2005.
The previous record drop was a 2.1 percent decline in November 1990, the real estate group said. While month-to-month declines in home prices are not uncommon, year-to-year drops had been rare before the recent housing slump.
Last August was the first month in 11 years to see such a decline. September was originally reported as a record 2.2 percent drop, but a revision in those numbers put that price decline at 1.8 percent.
The weakness in home prices isn't likely to go away soon, according to Realtors spokesman Walter Molony. "We do expect we'll see prices stay below year-ago levels through the end of this year, and pick up in the first quarter of 2007," he said.
Pat Vredevoogd Combs, a Grand Rapids, Mich., Realtor and president of the trade group, said in a statement the the market has become a good one for buyers.
"With the exception of parts of the West, sellers are cutting their price enough to encourage sales," she said. A sharp drop in sales and prices in once-hot markets such as Washington D.C. and parts of Florida, coupled with improved sales in some lower-price markets in Texas, have driven median prices down 7 percent in the South.
But all four regions of the country posted a year-over-year decline in median prices. "A fourth of the nation - areas that had the biggest boom - is in a correction that will take longer to balance," she added.
By Chris Isidore Cnnmone.com
Monday, November 13, 2006
Real Estate
Bear market in housing futures
Trading in the Case Shiller indices say prices are heading down.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Home prices fell from July to August in seven of the 10 major housing markets covered by the S&P Case Shiller indexes. The composite index for all 10 cities fell 0.36 percent.
But prices are heading down a lot more, if the investment pros who trade in housing futures can be believed.
Housing Futures based on the Case Shiller housing futures are speculating that housing prices will drop.
City IndexAug 06 FuturesAug 07 Projectedchange
Boston
177.29
167.0
-5.8
Chicago
167.99
158.0
-5.9
Denver
140.27
132.0
-5.9
Las Vegas
234.78
217.4
-7.4
Los Angeles
273.80
256.0
-6.5
Miami
276.80
254.6
-8.0
New York
212.93
198.4
-6.8
San Diego
247.30
232.2
-6.1
San Francisco
217.23
204.0
-6.1
Washington, DC
248.08
230.0
-7.3
Composite
225.17
208.8
-7.3
Source: Tradition Financial Services Note: All cities were assigned a base of 100 in 2000. An index of 177.90 means prices have risen 77.9 percent since then.
Housing futures based on the Case Shiller indexes and traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange have predicted a decline in the 10 markets around the country of 7.3 percent from August 2006 to August 2007. Prices in all 10 cities are projected to fall.
The S&P CME Housing Futures and Options, launched this past spring, enable investors to hedge against a drop in the value of residential properties in the future or to bet that those values will go up.
Miami, according to the futures, will experience the steepest plummet at 8 percent, and prices in Boston, at minus 5.8 percent, will hold up the best.
"I've been poring over the data for a long time now, given the anecdotal information we've been reading about home prices," says Fritz Siebel, director of housing derivatives at Tradition Financial Services, an institutional brokerage that trades futures of the Case Shiller indices. "I think the latest price drops are significant. These are pretty big numbers."
One month does not a trend make but Siebel points out that because of the gap between contract signings and when the front door keys actually change hands, August prices reflect closing prices of sales initiated earlier in the year, when many believed the housing market was still truckin' along.
Since them, markets have probably fared worse. Says Siebel, "The underlying metrics of the market - inventory, rate of sales - have not cleared. I don't see it getting better soon."
Neither, it seems, do speculators.
If the predicted decline happens, however, it may not be as severe as the futures trading indicates. According to Robert Shiller, the co-creator of the indexes, there is a risk premium to be taken into account; at this point, more traders are interested in protecting themselves against loss than are interested in buying into a growing market. That imbalance drives down the futures prices.
In addition, the futures have been traded very thinly to date and the smaller the sample size, the greater is the margin for error. As the market in housing future trading expands, the accuracy of their predictive value should increase
Bear market in housing futures
Trading in the Case Shiller indices say prices are heading down.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Home prices fell from July to August in seven of the 10 major housing markets covered by the S&P Case Shiller indexes. The composite index for all 10 cities fell 0.36 percent.
But prices are heading down a lot more, if the investment pros who trade in housing futures can be believed.
Housing Futures based on the Case Shiller housing futures are speculating that housing prices will drop.
City IndexAug 06 FuturesAug 07 Projectedchange
Boston
177.29
167.0
-5.8
Chicago
167.99
158.0
-5.9
Denver
140.27
132.0
-5.9
Las Vegas
234.78
217.4
-7.4
Los Angeles
273.80
256.0
-6.5
Miami
276.80
254.6
-8.0
New York
212.93
198.4
-6.8
San Diego
247.30
232.2
-6.1
San Francisco
217.23
204.0
-6.1
Washington, DC
248.08
230.0
-7.3
Composite
225.17
208.8
-7.3
Source: Tradition Financial Services Note: All cities were assigned a base of 100 in 2000. An index of 177.90 means prices have risen 77.9 percent since then.
Housing futures based on the Case Shiller indexes and traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange have predicted a decline in the 10 markets around the country of 7.3 percent from August 2006 to August 2007. Prices in all 10 cities are projected to fall.
The S&P CME Housing Futures and Options, launched this past spring, enable investors to hedge against a drop in the value of residential properties in the future or to bet that those values will go up.
Miami, according to the futures, will experience the steepest plummet at 8 percent, and prices in Boston, at minus 5.8 percent, will hold up the best.
"I've been poring over the data for a long time now, given the anecdotal information we've been reading about home prices," says Fritz Siebel, director of housing derivatives at Tradition Financial Services, an institutional brokerage that trades futures of the Case Shiller indices. "I think the latest price drops are significant. These are pretty big numbers."
One month does not a trend make but Siebel points out that because of the gap between contract signings and when the front door keys actually change hands, August prices reflect closing prices of sales initiated earlier in the year, when many believed the housing market was still truckin' along.
Since them, markets have probably fared worse. Says Siebel, "The underlying metrics of the market - inventory, rate of sales - have not cleared. I don't see it getting better soon."
Neither, it seems, do speculators.
If the predicted decline happens, however, it may not be as severe as the futures trading indicates. According to Robert Shiller, the co-creator of the indexes, there is a risk premium to be taken into account; at this point, more traders are interested in protecting themselves against loss than are interested in buying into a growing market. That imbalance drives down the futures prices.
In addition, the futures have been traded very thinly to date and the smaller the sample size, the greater is the margin for error. As the market in housing future trading expands, the accuracy of their predictive value should increase
Real Estate
Bear market in housing futures
Trading in the Case Shiller indices say prices are heading down.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Home prices fell from July to August in seven of the 10 major housing markets covered by the S&P Case Shiller indexes. The composite index for all 10 cities fell 0.36 percent.
But prices are heading down a lot more, if the investment pros who trade in housing futures can be believed.
Housing Futures based on the Case Shiller housing futures are speculating that housing prices will drop.
City IndexAug 06 FuturesAug 07 Projectedchange
Boston
177.29
167.0
-5.8
Chicago
167.99
158.0
-5.9
Denver
140.27
132.0
-5.9
Las Vegas
234.78
217.4
-7.4
Los Angeles
273.80
256.0
-6.5
Miami
276.80
254.6
-8.0
New York
212.93
198.4
-6.8
San Diego
247.30
232.2
-6.1
San Francisco
217.23
204.0
-6.1
Washington, DC
248.08
230.0
-7.3
Composite
225.17
208.8
-7.3
Source: Tradition Financial Services Note: All cities were assigned a base of 100 in 2000. An index of 177.90 means prices have risen 77.9 percent since then.
Housing futures based on the Case Shiller indexes and traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange have predicted a decline in the 10 markets around the country of 7.3 percent from August 2006 to August 2007. Prices in all 10 cities are projected to fall.
The S&P CME Housing Futures and Options, launched this past spring, enable investors to hedge against a drop in the value of residential properties in the future or to bet that those values will go up.
Miami, according to the futures, will experience the steepest plummet at 8 percent, and prices in Boston, at minus 5.8 percent, will hold up the best.
"I've been poring over the data for a long time now, given the anecdotal information we've been reading about home prices," says Fritz Siebel, director of housing derivatives at Tradition Financial Services, an institutional brokerage that trades futures of the Case Shiller indices. "I think the latest price drops are significant. These are pretty big numbers."
One month does not a trend make but Siebel points out that because of the gap between contract signings and when the front door keys actually change hands, August prices reflect closing prices of sales initiated earlier in the year, when many believed the housing market was still truckin' along.
Since them, markets have probably fared worse. Says Siebel, "The underlying metrics of the market - inventory, rate of sales - have not cleared. I don't see it getting better soon."
Neither, it seems, do speculators.
If the predicted decline happens, however, it may not be as severe as the futures trading indicates. According to Robert Shiller, the co-creator of the indexes, there is a risk premium to be taken into account; at this point, more traders are interested in protecting themselves against loss than are interested in buying into a growing market. That imbalance drives down the futures prices.
In addition, the futures have been traded very thinly to date and the smaller the sample size, the greater is the margin for error. As the market in housing future trading expands, the accuracy of their predictive value should increase
Bear market in housing futures
Trading in the Case Shiller indices say prices are heading down.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Home prices fell from July to August in seven of the 10 major housing markets covered by the S&P Case Shiller indexes. The composite index for all 10 cities fell 0.36 percent.
But prices are heading down a lot more, if the investment pros who trade in housing futures can be believed.
Housing Futures based on the Case Shiller housing futures are speculating that housing prices will drop.
City IndexAug 06 FuturesAug 07 Projectedchange
Boston
177.29
167.0
-5.8
Chicago
167.99
158.0
-5.9
Denver
140.27
132.0
-5.9
Las Vegas
234.78
217.4
-7.4
Los Angeles
273.80
256.0
-6.5
Miami
276.80
254.6
-8.0
New York
212.93
198.4
-6.8
San Diego
247.30
232.2
-6.1
San Francisco
217.23
204.0
-6.1
Washington, DC
248.08
230.0
-7.3
Composite
225.17
208.8
-7.3
Source: Tradition Financial Services Note: All cities were assigned a base of 100 in 2000. An index of 177.90 means prices have risen 77.9 percent since then.
Housing futures based on the Case Shiller indexes and traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange have predicted a decline in the 10 markets around the country of 7.3 percent from August 2006 to August 2007. Prices in all 10 cities are projected to fall.
The S&P CME Housing Futures and Options, launched this past spring, enable investors to hedge against a drop in the value of residential properties in the future or to bet that those values will go up.
Miami, according to the futures, will experience the steepest plummet at 8 percent, and prices in Boston, at minus 5.8 percent, will hold up the best.
"I've been poring over the data for a long time now, given the anecdotal information we've been reading about home prices," says Fritz Siebel, director of housing derivatives at Tradition Financial Services, an institutional brokerage that trades futures of the Case Shiller indices. "I think the latest price drops are significant. These are pretty big numbers."
One month does not a trend make but Siebel points out that because of the gap between contract signings and when the front door keys actually change hands, August prices reflect closing prices of sales initiated earlier in the year, when many believed the housing market was still truckin' along.
Since them, markets have probably fared worse. Says Siebel, "The underlying metrics of the market - inventory, rate of sales - have not cleared. I don't see it getting better soon."
Neither, it seems, do speculators.
If the predicted decline happens, however, it may not be as severe as the futures trading indicates. According to Robert Shiller, the co-creator of the indexes, there is a risk premium to be taken into account; at this point, more traders are interested in protecting themselves against loss than are interested in buying into a growing market. That imbalance drives down the futures prices.
In addition, the futures have been traded very thinly to date and the smaller the sample size, the greater is the margin for error. As the market in housing future trading expands, the accuracy of their predictive value should increase
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