Wednesday, September 13, 2006

Real Estate

FORECLOSUES SPIKED IN AUGUST

Rising payments on adjustable-rate mortgages contribute to 53% jump in foreclosures.

With real estate markets slowing and mortgage rates well above levels of recent years, times are getting tougher for homeowners - the number of homes entering into some stage of foreclosure is surging, according to a survey released Wednesday.

In August, 115,292 properties entered into foreclosure, according to RealtyTrac, an online marketplace for foreclosure sales. That was 24 percent above the level in July and 53 percent higher than a year earlier.

Where foreclosures are jumping Year over year gain in homes in foreclosure. Click for more stats on each state.

Nevada: Up 255%
California: Up 160%
Florida: Up 62%

Buying Foreclosed Homes

The 3 stages of foreclosures
Before you try it, it helps to know the landscape. (more)
It was the second highest monthly foreclosure total of the year; in February, 117,151 properties entered foreclosure.
Some of the bellwether real estate market states are among the leading foreclosure markets. Florida, had more than 16,533 properties in foreclosure in August. That led all states and was 50 percent higher than in July and 62 percent higher than in August 2005.

California foreclosures are increasing at an even faster annual rate, up 160 percent since last year to 12,506. And the formerly red-hot Nevada market recorded a spike of 24 percent compared with July and a whopping 255 percent increase from August 2005.

Rick Sharga, RealtyTrac's vice president of marketing, says the rising foreclosure numbers are in part the result of rising monthly payments on adjustable-rate mortgages, which have a low introductory interest rate that heads higher after an initial period.

"Usually, foreclosures are a lagging [market] indicator," he says. "But we've never had a situation like this with adjustable-rate mortgages amounting to $400 billion to $500 billion coming up for adjustment over the rest of the year."

For a homeowner with a 5/1 ARM (an adjustable rate loan with an initial fixed rate for five years that then adjusts annually) that's now resetting, the adjustment could add at least two percentage points to the interest rate. That could send the payment on a $200,000 loan up from about $950 a month closer to $1,200.

These exotic mortgages, which have been issued by lenders at much higher numbers the past few years, default at a higher rate than do fixed-rate mortgages. And sub-prime loans, which are much more common than in the past, have a higher default rate as well.

But, Sharga says, "The real wild card is the nature of the loans themselves. Historically, ARMs were underwritten pretty conservatively. There has been a loosening of standards with lower credit worthiness and smaller down payments."
Underlying causes

Homeowners are also in Dutch because of underlying economic conditions. Many of the worst hit markets, such as in the Midwest, are in areas hard hit by layoffs or other economic ills.

When housing markets were hot, homeowners could often avoid default through two ready made options, according to Sharga: They could sell to a ready market or they could use the increase through appreciation in their equity to refinance their homes. Increasingly, both those options are evaporating.
Contrary to what many consumers may believe, lenders are not anxious to foreclose on homes and put families out on the streets. Foreclosures tend to be money losers for lenders and are done mostly as a last resort.

Sharga says lenders are beginning to recognize that a problem is brewing and are taking steps to address it. They are much more amenable to a short sale, for example, in which they accept a low-ball, cash bid early in the default process that may not even cover their mortgage, in order to avoid a larger loss later. That can help homeowners by preserving their credit scores and easing their transitions into the rental market.

"Lenders say they're looking for ways to work with homeowners in trouble," reports Sharga. "So for homeowners looking at a default situation, the sooner they talk to their lender - and see what options are available - the better."

More real estate news: Leading home builders lower profit outlook. Companies warning include: Lennar (Charts), KB Home (Charts) and Beazer Homes (Charts).

Monday, September 11, 2006

California Home Sales Statistics For July 2006

Real Estate

CALIFORNIA JULY HOME SALES 2006

A total of 44,250 new and resale houses and condos were sold statewide last month. That's down 17.6 percent from 53,700 for June and down 28.8 percent from 62,150 for July 2005.
The median price paid for a home last month was $475,000. That was down 0.6 percent from June's record $478,000, and up 5.3 percent from $451,000 for July a year ago.

The typical mortgage payment that home buyers committed themselves to paying last month was $2,353. That was down from $2,362 in June, and up from $1,974 for July a year ago.

Market stress indicators are still low: Down payments are stable, speculation buying is moderate, there are no significant shifts in market mix and default rates are rising, but still low. Earlier increases in non owner-occupied purchase activity and flipping activity have leveled off. The use of adjustable-rate mortgages has dropped the last half year.

Alberto Pacheco
818 481 9211
Calbre01200694
Keller Williams Porter Ranch
www.granadahills.kwrealty.com

Wednesday, August 23, 2006

California Foreclosure Activity in 2006

Real Estate


California Foreclosure Activity Hits Three-Year High

Second quarter California foreclosure activity rose at the fastest pace in at least 14 years, the result of waning home price appreciation.

Lenders sent 20,752 default notices to homeowners statewide during the April-through-June period. That was up 10.5 percent from 18,778 the previous quarter and up 67.2 percent from 12,408 in the second quarter of last year, DataQuick Information Systems reported. Last quarter's year-over-year increase was the highest for any quarter since DataQuick began tracking defaults in 1992. Notices of default are formal documents filed with the county recorder's office and mark the first step in the foreclosure process.

Despite the second quarter surge, defaults remained below historically normal levels. On average, lenders filed 32,762 notices of default each quarter over the past 14 years. Last quarter's 20,752 total was the highest since 25,511 were filed in first quarter 2003.

"This is an important trend to watch but doesn't strike us as ominous," said Marshall Prentice, DataQuick's president. "The increase was a statistical certainty because the number of defaults had fallen to such extreme lows. We would have to see defaults roughly double from today's level before they would begin to impact home values much."

"We hear a lot of talk about rising payments on adjustable-rate loans triggering borrower distress," Prentice continued. "While there's no doubt some of that is going on, as far as we can tell the spike in defaults is mainly the result of slowing price appreciation. It makes it harder for people behind on their mortgage to sell their homes and pay off the lender."

Other factors that contribute to higher defaults include the amount of equity owners have in their homes, the type of mortgage and how long the mortgage has been held.

DataQuick, a subsidiary of Vancouver-based MacDonald Dettwiler and Associates, monitors real estate activity nationwide and provides information to consumers, educational institutions, public agencies, lending institutions, title companies and industry analysts.

Foreclosure activity hit a low during the third quarter of 2004, when lenders filed 12,145 default notices. That year California home prices rose at an annual rate exceeding 20 percent. This year annual price gains have slipped into single digits in many of the state's larger housing markets. Last month San Diego and Sacramento counties saw their median home prices dip about 1 percent compared with a year ago. Second quarter defaults shot up about 99 percent in San Diego County and 109 percent in Sacramento County from last year.

Still, today's statewide foreclosure activity amounts to about one-third of the peak level in the first quarter of 1996, when 59,897 defaults were filed. The state was in a housing slump back then and foreclosure activity tugged home values down by about 10 percent in some areas.

Today, only about seven percent of homeowners who find themselves in default lose their homes to foreclosure. Most stop the process by bringing their mortgage payments current, or by selling their home and paying the home loan(s) off.

Notices of Default houses and condos

County/Region 2005Q2 2006Q2 % Chg

Los Angeles 3157 4587 45.3%
Orange 697 1280 83.6%
San Diego 894 1778 98.9%
Riverside 1121 2287 104.0%
San Bernardino 1093 1839 68.3%
Ventura 250 452 80.8%

Alberto Pacheco
818 481 9211
Calbre01200694
Keller Williams Porter Ranch
www.granadahills.kwrealty.com

Monday, June 19, 2006

Real Estate

Top 5 Reasons Buyers Won't Commit To Purchase

Spring is the traditional peak sales season for houses and condos. Summer is usually very good until the traditional Agust slump, especially for families who want to relocate before school starts. More prospective home buyers are in the market at this time of the year than during any other season.

But 2006 is proving to be a bit different. Although 2005 was a record home sales volume year, the number or residence sales has slowed this year. There could be several reasons such as adverse weather in many areas and slowly rising mortgage interest rates. In a few communities home sales prices have taken s slight dip so prospective buyers might be waiting to see if desperate home sellers reduce their asking prices.

Another reason for waiting to buy a house or condo is the inventory of available listings is slowly rising, thus offering more homes available for sale.

In summary, for most communities it is definetely a "buyers" market". That means there are more homes listed for sale than there are qualified home buyers.

The result can be a bargain prices for savvy home buyers.

Alberto Pacheco
818 481 9211
Calbre01200694
Keller Williams Porter Ranch
www.granadahills.kwrealty.com

Monday, May 15, 2006

Real Estate

Pricey Homes and Lots of Them

Fewer sales mean more houses to choose from. Buyers have gained breathing room, if not a lot a great deals.

This is the time when buyers have time to shop and compare and cam make a throughful purchase. It is not like a year ago when buyers were walking around with a check in their pocket and writing offers on the hood of their car.

There were 69,499 single family homes sold in the first three months of the year in Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, Ventura and San Diego counties, according to Dataquick Information Systems, a decline of more than 8% from the same period a year earlier.

Buyers don't have that panicked feeling. 'If I don't buy therefore the post goes up, I'll get into the multiple offers and lose out'

Althogh most buyers are focused on specific neighborhoods and follow median sales prices more closely thatn the price per square foot measurements, real estate agents and idustry analyst say the latter number offers the most reliable snapshot of how a market is performing over a wide area. Homes are also clearly lingering longer on the market. Southern California had a six month supply of homes for sale in January 2005.

The lowest performing zip code in Los Angeles County was 91390 in Santa Clarita, which was still up 7.7% for the same period according to Dataquick

Thursday, May 11, 2006

Real Estate

Foreclosure Activity UP

Softer Appreciation rates drove foreclosure activity to its highest level in two years during the first quarter, including a 19.1% annual spike in Los Angeles County. However foreclosure activity is coming off all time low levels and would have to double or triple to cause market distress, said DataQuick Information Systems.

In the year's first three months, lenders issued 18,668 default notices to California homeowners, up an annual 28.7% and 23.4 increase from the 2005 fourth quarter. The Last time it was this high was the 18,738 notices at the fourth quarter of 2003.

Across the county, 4,211 homeowners received the notices, the first step in the foreclosure process. That's the most since 4,736 in the first quarter of 2004.

By comparison, an average of 11,211 default notices were issued each quarter in the county over the past 14 years. We're coming off the bottom here. We though this would happen stronger, so this is an indicator of a stronger market that we anticipated.

Factors other than appreciation also affect foreclosure activity. They include the amount of equity people have in their property, the type of mortgage, they used and how long they've had that mortgage.

The low point for statewide foreclosure activity came in the third quarter of 2004, when property owners received 12,145 default notices. Activity peaked in the 1996 first quarter which 59,897 notices. Default statistics go back to 1992.

Market watchers have been predicting for months that annual price appreciation rates would narrow and that is now happening.

Statewide, the annual appreciation rate hit a high of 22.8% during the second quarter of 2004. Since then, it's fallen to 12.4% in the first quarter of this year. Only 5% of homeowners who find themselves in default actually lose their homes to foreclosure.

Most are able to stop the foreclosure process by
bringing their mortgage payments current or by selling their home and paying off the mortgage balance.

According to the Deputy Chief Economist at the California Association of Realtors, if this market continues softening the most risk will be faced by relatively new buyers financed with interest only, straight adjustable or other creative loan products.

While the supply of properties for sale increased in the years first two months and helped mitigate the price increases, it fell in March. Inventory is still lean enough to drive price increases, something that will ease the foreclosure risk.

The underlying economic conditions that five rise to large number of foreclosures are really nowhere in sight. You need to have quite a bit of economic distress and we don't expect that over the near future.

Tuesday, May 02, 2006

Real Estate

Hot Home Market Eases Into Slower Gear

First-quarter numbers are in and the evidence is irrefutable. The real estate market is off to its weakest start in years and the sellers are making big adjustments in therir asking price to fantasy ratio.

For January to March period sales are well undcr year ago levels across the state, Los Angeles County and San Fernando Valley.

Inventory is up, giving buyers more leverage than they've had in years. Inventory levels, also offer a glimpse of what direction prices might take. To find a market this anemic in the Valley we have to go back to 1997.

In this year's first quarter 2,153 previously owned houses changed owners down 22.8% from 2,789 sales in the 2005 first quarter. The last time sales were this week came in the 1997 first quarter, 2,120 single family transactios.

Preliminary numbers from the California Association of Realtors show a similar trend. Statewide sales fell 18.3% from last year first quarter, one that was on a record pace. Los Angeles County sales dropped 19.1%

Prices have stayed in a narrow range since last July, rising from a low of $ 590,000 in September and December to March's high. Lots of market analysts and economists expect prices to behave in this fashion for a while.

There are also ample signs of the inventory build up. Neigborhoods are festooned with the most "For Sale" sales signs in years, some sporting "Price Reduced" tags. Sellers, can no longer slap 20% on top of what their neighbor's house sold for, sit back and wait for the cash to roll in.

The bigger the supply the more downward pressure is exerted on prices. Research found that when inventory levels are seven months or lower, the state media price goes up 11% on average. When inventory streches nine months or more, the median fall on a consistent basis.

March ended with state-wide inventory at 5.2 months. A year ago was 1.8 months. Inventory in the Valley was 3.6 months.

Last March it was 1.2 month supply. The market is going to continue to unwind. Wheter it's more that 10 years worth remains to be seen.

Friday, April 28, 2006

Real Estate FSBOs ( For Sale By Owners) May Be Losing Millions.

For Sale By Owners, are home owners who sell their own houses without professinal help. It seems that in the desire to save the 5% or 5% fee that real estate brokers charge for their services, The For Sale By Owners earn 16% less than owners of comparable houses who put the transaction into the hands of an experience agent according to a survey conducted by National Association of Realtors.

A poll of 7,813 recent buyers and sellers located through county deed records found that the median price achieved by sellers with agents was $ 230,000 compared with $ 198,200 for those without agents. That's a difference of nearly $ 32,000 or 15%, with no significant diffferences between the types of homes sold.

A research by two intructors at the University of Texas at San Antonio found that sellers realize little gain when they turn to limited service agents to perform some but not all the tasks needed to close a sale.

The study revealed that limited service listings sold for 1.7% less than full service ones and took 17.1% longer to sell. It seems that a limited service brokerage offers "no dollar advantage".

FSBOs who participated in the Realtor survey also said they had more difficulty in undertanding and completing the necessary paperwork, preparing their homes for the marked and setting the proper price that they did in attracting buyers.

FSBOs don't price their property correctly, they don't have the resources to determine a fair and solid asking price.

Tuesday, February 28, 2006

Real Estate

January Home Sales Lowest For Month in 5 years

Home sales accross Souther California fell 7.4 percent last month to their lowest level for January in five years as the real estate market continued to cool.

Potential buyers morphing into fence sitters accounted for the dip in the market's off-season. Last month buyers scooped up 28,085 new and resale housed and condos in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties. Sales plunged 30,6 per cent from 28,952 transactions in December, but a monthly decline at this time of year is typical, the company said.

December is one of the year's strongest months and January one of the weakest. Sales last month were the fewest in January since 2001, when there were 18,010. The low point for the month was 1992 with 10,994 sales and the high was in 1989, with 23,379.

We're past the frenzy, and it's kind of normalizing re-reaching a balance. Sales have now fallen for two consecutive months, but this does not signal a trend. It will take until March to get a sense of how the market concludes a long boom cycle.

While sales are following expectations, the median price is not January's median across the six county region rose an anual 13 percent to $ 469,000.00

However the rise was well below the year ago rate of increase. We actually thought it would be lower than that by now. It's just coming down slower than we anticipated. That's because demand continues to be strong. The DataQuick president notes that there are no troubling signs for the market n the horizon.

In Los Angeles County 6,761 propertis changed hands down an annual 11.4 percent. The median price, the point at which half the units cost more and half less, increased 17.6 percent to
$ 487,000.

In Ventura County, sales fell 21.3 percent to 731 transactions, and the median price increase 18,8 percent to $ 608,000.

Monday, February 13, 2006

Sales Up For New Homes

Strong demand and contiune low interest rates pushed new home sales across the state to their highest level in 20 years during 2005, with the best markets in Southern California.

Last year consumers bought 136,228 new homes up 4.4% from 130,480 in 2004.

Since the market start slowing down Builders are a bit more careful these days, that's acting as a hedge agains getting caught with an inventory overload that characterized the end of the 1980's market.

Los Angeles County had the state's third strongest market with 10,872 sales up 19.2%. The median price dipped 0.2% to $ 454,000.

These number include condo conversions and (that) activity increased sharply last year. Since they are lower cost homes, they pull down the median price.

Home Affordability in 2005

Affordability Still At A Record Low

Housing affordability remain at 14% in December matching its record low label as rising prices and interest rates continued to slow the market.

In December the median price for a home in the state soared 15.6% to $ 548,430.00 and sales plunged 17.6%

In Los Angeles County, where the median price home cost $ 552.760, affordability fell an annual 5 percentage points to 12%

The minimum household income needed to purchase a median price home in California in December was $134,200 based on an average mortgage interest rate of 6.33% and assuming a 20% downpayment.

This is the beginning of a slowdown in the market that's been anticipated. Prices are still going to go up, but below the 10% range, and the volume of sales will slow significantly.

Alberto Pacheco
818 481 9211
Calbre01200694
Keller Williams Porter Ranch
www.granadahills.kwrealty.com